January 21, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0500 Thursday

The Snapshot:  The games have begun with heavy snow falling this morning.  The snow is expected to change to rain with mostly rain throughout the today.  This could be a significant rain on snow event with considerable avalanche activity.  

The Science: The radar has the rain/snow line right along the crest as of 4am this morning.  The warm air will continue to invade, raising freezing levels above 5000’ today.   However, there is a chance that the east flow could win the day and have mostly snow throughout – a small chance. The precipitation will begin to taper off tomorrow with freezing levels dropping to +-4000’.   

The Long Range:  Another low pressure system tracking NW through the state on Saturday will bring a chance of some more snow.  High pressure builds on Sunday with dry weather greeting the new week.  

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = 1-1.5 Snow =  3-8

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25-.5  snow = 1-3

Trend and Timing:
Snow is expected to change to rain or at least mixed rain this morning.   The moisture will begin to taper off tomorrow morning with a few inches of snow left over.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  26   High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’  - 6500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels peak around 6500’ this afternoon and then begin to fall back after midnight tonight.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 SE

Trend and Timing:
 Weak east flow will remain at the surface while ridge top winds shift southerly.   




jM

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