February 15, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER 1100 am UPDATE

Time and Day: 11:00 am  update

The Snapshot: Snow changing to rain this afternoon.  Moderate rain tonight changing to snow after midnight tonight and then diminishing tomorrow morning.   

The Science:  A weak cold front passing north of Stevens Pass has temporarily dropped snow levels to 4000’.   Freezing levels are expected to climb back above 5000’  in a few hours with the moisture letting up a bit.  A pocket of warm air being pushed ahead of a cold front will bring another round of rain changing to snow tonight.  The moisture tap gets shut off by noon or so tomorrow due to some upper-level ridging.   

The Long Range:  The rain snow game begins Wednesday again with gradually cooling as the week comes to an end.


Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = +2” Snow = 2-4

Tomorrow’s 24hr water =.25 -.5  snow = 1-3

Trend and Timing:
Snow changing to rain continues through tonight.  Rain turns to mixed snow and then tapers to light showers tomorrow morning.  Light passing rain showers with partial clearing can also be expected tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 32    High: 40
Freezing level: +6000’ – 4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will remain warm today.  A small pocket of colder air will allow freezing levels to drop temporarily to 4500’ or lower tomorrow morning.   Freezing levels will then rise again on Wednesday. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 W
Ridge Top: 5-20 W gust +40 possible

Trend and Timing:
The wind hasn’t been as strong as models thought, but will remain gusty through the day as well.




jM

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