February 13, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Saturday

The Snapshot: Snow increases this afternoon and changes to heavy rain with high winds tomorrow morning.  Heavy rain is expected through at least Tuesday.

The Science:  During the next 2-4days, the PNW will be under the influence of a very strong storm with heavy precipitation and high winds.  A pocket of cold air will be pushed ahead of the front this afternoon with a period of heavy snow falling at Stevens Pass tonight.  Once the front moves east of the crest, the freezing levels will rise above 5000’ and then the tap will be cranked open.  Heavy rain and high winds can be expected tomorrow morning and will likely last into Tuesday.  Storm totals could exceed 5” of water.   Flood warnings and high wind advisories are starting to pop up for western Washington.

The Long Range:  Above freezing temperatures with periods of rain are expected to continue into the middle of next week.  Weather models disagree on the long range outlook, so confidence is low on what will happen past Wednesday.  As of now,  the week ends drier under building high pressure. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = + 1” Snow = 6-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 1-2” snow =  0

Trend and Timing:
Heavy “wet” snow begins this afternoon and changes to rain by 7 am tomorrow morning.  


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  28   High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’ - 5500.'

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise above 4000’ late tonight and then continues to rise through the day tomorrow.    Freezing levels expected to top 6500’ on Sunday.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 WSW gusty
Ridge Top: 10- 20 W

Trend and Timing:
Winds will be a factor as these frontal boundaries move through.   Ridge top winds could top 50mph tomorrow and Monday.




jM

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