February 3, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0730 Wednesday

The Snapshot:   Snow today, powder day tomorrow, warming with rain-snow mix on Friday/Saturday.

The Science:  This morning’s radar has the approaching frontal system just about to hit the coastline.  The leading edge of the front should reach the mountains later today with moderate to heavy snow tonight and tomorrow.  This storm is well-organized with all the fixing of a good snow event. (east flow, PS Convergence…)  However, it does begin to warm tomorrow afternoon with freezing levels inching toward 4500’.  

The Long Range: Snow ends Thursday night with a strong warm front and rising freezing levels entering the scene Friday afternoon.  So expect a mixed bag of snow and rain on Friday night and Saturday.  A very strong high-pressure ridge begins to build on Sunday/Monday with clearing and freezing levels possibly rising above 10,000’.  Dare I say, spring-like? 

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .75 – 1 Snow = 10-14

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .75  snow = 4-8

Trend and Timing:
Snow begins this morning and intensifies through the day.  Winds shift westerly around midnight with convergence conditions setting up for Stevens Pass.  Snow, with the possibility of some mixed rain, starts to diminish tomorrow afternoon/evening. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  20  High: 28
Freezing level: 1500’ -  3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will be on the rise with this system, but it should be slow.  East flow influence will keep surface temperatures low until late tonight.
Freezing levels expected to rise above 4000’ after 12 pm tomorrow.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E  shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W strengthening

Trend and Timing:
East flow should hold until midnight or so and then shifting westerly.   Westerly flow will increase early tomorrow morning and remain gusty for most of the day.




jM

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0800 Start Fri Jan 2nd, no ABS