March 1, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Tuesday

The Snapshot: Snow until noon or so today then changing to rain then back to snow tonight, snow showers continue tomorrow.  The wind will also be a factor tonight and early tomorrow morning.   Warm and wet weather continues through the weekend.

The Science:  5” snow has fallen thus far with a few more inches likely before it shifts to rain.  Cool easterly flow influence should keep the moisture as snow until the approaching warm front passes east of the crests around noon or so.  Freezing levels are expected to rise to around 6000’  in the wake of the front and then fall tonight with the arrival of the trailing cold front.  The moisture shifts to showers tonight with a brief break in the precipitation during the day tomorrow.  Another strong front with +- 4000’ freezing levels enters the scene tomorrow night with more snow and rain.

The Long Range:  Several storms are lined up to impact the PNW through the weekend.  The storm track gradually shifts southerly progressively trending warmer.  In other words, rain will be the main feature on Friday and Saturday.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = 1-1.25 Snow = 5-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5 snow = 2-4

Trend and Timing:
Snow is expected to change to rain this afternoon and then back to snow after 7 pm tonight.   The moisture shifts to intermittent showers tomorrow.  


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  30   High: 38
Freezing level: 4000’  - 6000’ – 4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels spike to 6000’ today and then fall to 4000’ after 7 pm tonight.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting W
Ridge Top:  0-10  SSE shifting SW

Trend and Timing:
The wind will shift to SW then W this afternoon.  Watch for high post frontal winds tonight and early tomorrow morning.  Models have 50knot winds peaking between 2 am and 4 am tomorrow morning and then diminishing through the day.




jM

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