November 4, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1:00 pm Friday

The Snapshot:  It’s good to see and feel the sun.  Rain, with a touch of snow is developing for tomorrow, dry Sunday and Monday. 

The Science:   A strong cold front tracking towards the PNW will push a band of moderate precipitation into the mountains tomorrow.  Freezing levels are expected to drop to 5000’ in the wake of the front.  Rain will start out the day with a mixture of snow and rain tapering into Sunday.  A ridge of high pressure will begin to break up the moisture on Sunday with Monday trending dry and cloudy.   

The Long Range:  The north central Cascades will remain relatively dry next week as the approaching moisture is confined to the coast.   Freezing levels will also rise back up to +-7000’ early next week with a warm air mass settling in.   

Long range models have a large low-pressure system developing in the North Pacific.  This system is expected to become stationary and thus continue to pull warm air up from the south along with harboring plenty of moisture.  However, the high pressure parked over the interior west will likely block most of the moisture from making it to the mountains.  In short, there is no snow on the radar for the next 7-10 days.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water =  .75 -1 Snow =  trace

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25  snow = trace

Trend and Timing:
Rain begins after 4 am tomorrow and continues for most of the day.  Period of mixed snow will be possible on the tail end of this storm. 
Intermittent showers develop tomorrow night with light showers lingering into Sunday.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  36   High: 50
Freezing level: 7500’  5000.'

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon once the front passes east of the crest.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base:  0- 5  E SE
Ridge Top: 5-10 SW

Trend and Timing:
 East flow at the surface with gusty ridge top winds can be expected for the next 24-36hrs




jM

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