December 20, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1030 Tuesday

Apologies for the late forecast, avalanche control this morning.

The Snapshot: Wind with moderate to heavy snow showers today.  Dry with some warming tomorrow, light snow on Thursday.

The Science:  Strong westerly winds has filled in behind the cold front that passed east of the Cascade Crest earlier this morning.  The Puget Sound convergence zone has formed and will produce high winds and moderate to heavy snow through the day.  Pressure gradients will ease after sunset which will bring and end to the wind and the snow.

Warm SW flow coupled with a weak high pressure ridge will produce a relatively benign day tomorrow with mild temperatures and sun breaks.  Quite the contrast to today.

The Long Range:   A low-pressure system sliding down the BC coast will bring another chance of snow on Thursday and then again on Friday.  These systems are not packing much of a punch but will produce some nice new snow heading into the weekend.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .5-.75  Snow = 6-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr water =  0 snow =  0

Trend and Timing:
Snow will taper off after 7pm tonight with little to no additional precipitation after midnight.  Dry tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  26   High: 30
Freezing level: 3500’ -4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will cool off a bit today and tonight with freezing levels inching toward 4000’ tomorrow.  Surface temperatures could rise above freezing tomorrow with the aid of the sun.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base:  5-15 W
Ridge Top: 10-25 W  gusty +40

Trend and Timing:
Westerly winds will remain strong through early afternoon and then begin to diminish after midnight.  Wind shifts easterly tomorrow afternoon.




jM

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