December 28, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1200 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  The sky is beginning to clear over Stevens Pass.   Light snow can be anticipated to arrive early tomorrow morning and with moderate snow tomorrow night and into Friday. 

The Science:  Clouds have begun to break up as a weak high pressure ridge slides over the mountains.   Radar is still picking up some moisture to the north, but for the most part, the snow has ended for the day.   

A weak warm front will sag south tonight pushing freezing levels up to +-4000’ tomorrow.  There is not a lot of available moisture with this first front, so expect light snow with temperatures near or just above freezing for most of tomorrow.   Cool unstable NW flow drives in the main batch of moisture tomorrow afternoon/evening with freezing levels dropping to around 2500’ early Friday morning.   

The Long Range:   Light snow can be expected on Saturday as a weak disturbance slides down the coast.  It appears that our recent storm cycle that has dumped all this glorious snow will come to and end for the start of the New Year.  Long term models have a dry, cold and stable airmass (high pressure) parking itself over the NW coastal region starting January 1st 2017.  

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = <.25 Snow = 1-2

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5-.75  snow = 6-8

Trend and Timing:
Light snow develops early tomorrow morning with light snow showers through the day.   Heavier snow arrives after 2 pm tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 20    High:  28
Freezing level: 3000’-4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Surface temps will drop under clear conditions tonight.  Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ or so tomorrow.    

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base:  0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
 Light east flow develops tonight. Wind shift westerly with the passing of the front tomorrow afternoon.




jM

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