January 15, 2017

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0830 Sunday

The Snapshot: One more dry and mild day today, increasing clouds and heavy precipitation (snow turning to rain) Monday night.

The Science: Another dry and mild day today with a strong inversion and cold east winds at pass level. At 8:30 it’s 12 degrees in the base area (4,060’) and 32 at the top of Skyline (5,280’). The high pressure ridge axis should drift over Washington during this afternoon bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures above the inversion and on the west slopes of the Cascades.

As the high pressure moves east on Monday, warming temperatures and increasing clouds will portend the change in synoptic pattern. A strong SW oriented jet stream will begin to take shape and direct a plume of moisture (Atmospheric River) into Washington State and Southern BC. Precip will likely begin as snow Monday afternoon, but should transition to all rain by Tuesday. These weather events are somewhat tricky with warm, moist air overriding very cold air in place. We could see higher snow amounts before the transition early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday looks to be a wet, warm, stormy day. Heavy precipitation and high SW winds with high (7,000’) freezing levels will make for sporty conditions.

The Long Range: Heavy rain and warm temperatures continue Wednesday before a cold trough enters the region Wednesday night, dropping freezing levels back to Pass level and returning precipitation to snow. Total water amounts for the 72 hour period ending Wednesday night look to be around 5-6”. When things cool off Wednesday night, a return to light to moderate snow should finish out the week.


Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = 0 Snow = 0

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 1.5” Snow = 2-4”

Trend and Timing:
Precip should hold off at Stevens Pass until the afternoon (1-4pm) on Monday. It should begin as snow, but transition to rain all the way to ridgetops by Monday night/very early Tuesday morning.   

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  10 (in base area) High: 36 (on upper mountain)
Free Air Freezing level: 6,000’ (below freezing from mid-mountain down)

Trend and Timing:   
In terrain above the inversion layer temperatures should warm nicely during the day. Base area temperatures will remain in the teens through Monday morning.
 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: E 5-10
Ridge Top: Variable 5-15

Trend and Timing:
Ridgetop winds have been shifting from east to SW, along with dramatic swings in temperature. Speeds should remain light to moderate through Monday morning.

DV

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0800 start for Tuesday 12/23/25, no ABS

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