February 28, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Can someone say “100-inch party”.  Yep, it’s official, 103” base.   Light snow showers are expected today with increasing snow and wind tonight.  The snow is expected to continue through the weekend.  

The Science:  The snow will increase late this afternoon as strong westerly flow drives in the next batch of moisture. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will be on full display tonight with high winds and good orographic snowfall from Stevens Pass north.   The freezing levels will also be on the rise with a warmer airmass being pulled in from the southwest.

Snow with rising temperatures continues tomorrow with a strong warm front pulling up a seat on Thursday.  Heavy snow with freezing levels peaking near 4000’ can be anticipated on Thursday and Friday with a cold front swinging in late Friday night.

The Long Range:  The low-pressure system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska will keep the precipitation machine cranking through the weekend and likely into early next week.     
 
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .5-.75  snow = 4-8
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5-1 snow = 6-12

Trend and Timing:
The snow increases after 4 pm today with the heaviest period expected to begin around midnight.  Light to moderate snow will persist tomorrow.  Note that models have the heaviest snow to the north of Stevens Pass, hence the large spread in precipitation values.  A small shift in the convergence zone could easily point the main energy up the HWY 2 corridor.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 22    High: 26
Freezing level: 1000’ -  3000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise to 3000’ today and then continue to rise to near 4000’ on Thursday.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W

Trend and Timing:
A high wind warning will take effect tonight with ridge top winds topping 40+ early tomorrow morning.  Westerly winds will be persistent through tomorrow.



jM

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