Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0700 Saturday

Storm Cycle Recap: Between February 26 and March 9:

-        94” of snow recorded on the 12 hour observations.

-        Measurable snow every 12 hours except one period.

-        7” of snow water equivalent

-        Snowpack increased about 30” (significant settlement is where the rest went)

-        4 full days of avalanche control and 3 calloffs

-        656 hand charges

-        3 significant avalanche cycles, with up to 36” crowns in isolated areas.

The Snapshot: A PNW variety-pack of weather is in store for today. Precipitation should be tapering Saturday night with light snow possible Sunday.

The Science: A complex mixture of air masses will impact Stevens Pass toady. The next front to influence our area is approaching the coast at 6:30 this morning. With light east flow and temperatures just below freezing, precipitation should start as snow. Moderate to heavy snow should occur mid-day Saturday as the front passes. As the slight east flow erodes (there isn’t much to begin with) snow levels should rise to the ridge tops and precipitation should taper Saturday afternoon. With a little luck the moisture will shut off just as the temperatures rise. Freezing levels fall again below Pass level Saturday night with little moisture overnight.  

A flat ridge will cross Washington State on Sunday with slightly cooler temperatures and light showers. Sunday night and Monday upper level flow strengthens from the SW and a warm front with plenty of moisture begins to affect the PNW. Heavy rain at high freezing levels (6-7k) looks likely on Monday.

The Long Range: A series of warm fronts look to affect the PNW during the first half of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday both feature moderate to heavy precipitation at 6,000-7,000’ freezing levels for the Western Cascades. East of the crest there should be considerably less precipitation and warm, spring temperatures.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = .5-.75 Snow = 4-6” Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25-.5 Snow = 1-3” Trend and Timing: Snow will begin Saturday mid-morning becoming moderate to heavy between 10am and 2pm. Mixed precip is possible Saturday afternoon with snow/rain tapering to light showers Saturday night.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:                                        Low: 28   High: 36 Snow Level: 4,000-5,500-3,500 Trend and Timing:    Snow levels should start at Pass level Saturday morning, and rise to near the ridgetops Saturday evening before falling again Saturday night.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: E 0-5, then W 5-10 Ridge Top: ESE 10-15, then WSW 20-30 Trend and Timing:  Light east flow should ease and switch to westerly Saturday afternoon. DV