March 12, 2017

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0700 Sunday

The Snapshot: Light mixed precip today, mostly cloudy and a brief break tonight. Heavy rain Monday.

The Science: 5” of very dense (~25% water content) snow at the top of Brooks and mostly rain overnight in the base area will make for a mix of ski conditions today. Washington State is under what’s referred to as a “dirty” ridge this morning. This means a weak high pressure ridge that allows clouds and moisture to move through and around it. This ridge will drift east today and allow strong SW upper level flow to take over Sunday night and Monday. Heavy rain will occur Monday along with strong SW winds. There is no real east flow or cold air in place to insulate Stevens Pass from this event, or the next few days for that matter. It’s just going to happen.

The Long Range: After a brief break in the precipitation Monday night, the rain starts up again Tuesday morning. Precip amounts look a bit lighter on Tuesday, but not by a whole lot. A cold(er) front crosses the region on Wednesday bringing a slight drop in snow levels. Stay tuned for optimism regarding the end of next week.  


24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25-.5   Snow = 1-3”
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 1.5-2.0   Snow = 0”

Trend and Timing:
Light snow/rain showers during the day Sunday, and a brief break in the precip Sunday night. Heavy rain starts after 5am Monday.

24hr temperature ending at 4am: 
Low: 30   High: 38
Freezing level: 4,000-7,000’

Trend and Timing:   
Low temperatures should be Sunday morning. Freezing levels will climb during the day and overnight, reaching 7,000’ Monday.
 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am:
Base: W 5-10
Ridge Top: WSW 15-20

Trend and Timing:
Winds will remain moderate Sunday and Sunday night.

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0800 Start Wed Jan 14th, No ABS