March 16, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Thursday

The Snapshot: It’s snowing with 2” of new – yeah.  Drying today and tomorrow with a snow, rain, snow event for the weekend.   

The Science:   Cool westerly flow aloft and the forming of a weak Puget Sound Convergence zone has provided some snow this morning.  Hopefully, another inch or two will fall before it tapers off in a few hours.  Snow will taper off due to a high pressure ridge moving in; we may even get a peek at the sun, which will be nice after the last 3 days of grayness. 

The next weather event to turn our attention to arrives tomorrow.  A strong low-pressure cell tracking up the coast with an embedded triple frontal system will bring the next round of snow/rain/snow to Stevens Pass.  

Models have it playing out like this:  Lights snow begins late tomorrow afternoon with freezing levels around 4000’,   freezing levels rise to +-6500’ overnight with rain,  a cold front moves through Saturday morning shifting the rain back to snow.   Snow is expected Saturday afternoon and evening with 4-6” possible.

The Long Range:  High pressure builds over the PNW on Sunday for a well deserved dry and sunny batch of weather.  Another warm and wet system arrives on Tuesday, just in time for the first day of spring.  March 21st = spring equinox.   

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25  snow = 2-4
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5 -.75 snow =  2-4

Trend and Timing:
Snow ends this morning with mostly dry conditions prevailing through noon tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 26    High: 32
Freezing level: +-4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Daytime warming with some sun breaks will push surface temperatures up today.   Cooling tonight with rising freezing levels tomorrow night.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W

Trend and Timing:
The gusty westerly wind blowing this morning will diminish in a few hours.   East flow is expected to develop tomorrow.



jM

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