October 21, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0900 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Mixed rain and snow changing to heavy rain today, drying begins tomorrow.     
 
The Long Range:  With the exception of a weakening disturbance moving through on Wednesday, next week will be mostly dry and warm.  Indian Summer-esk perhaps. 

The Science:  It is 27f on the upper mountain and 32f at Pass level. .47” of mostly mixed rain and snow fell yesterday with just an inch or two of snow below 4500’.  The Barometer is holding steady around 1010mb.

Another strong frontal system, with an impressive amount of moisture (+3”) is getting ready to shift NW and enter the Cascade Mountains.  Freezing levels are sitting around 4500’ but will rise in the wake of the warm front.  Some cool air pooling along the eastern slopes could allow a few hours’ of nice snow accumulation prior to the shift to rain later today.   

 An impressive plume of moisture with water content values of over 3” is being fed into this storm from the SW.  In other words, get ready for a very wet period of rain with river flooding likely.

The barometer will begin to click up as the high pressure to the south starts to push in tomorrow.  The clearing and drying process begins tomorrow with most of next week being dry, sunny and relatively warm throughout.   
 
24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water: 2-3 snow: 2-6
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25  snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
The precipitation will intensify through the day with over 2” of rain likely through the night. The precipitation begins to diminish tomorrow with the drying trend beginning.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 32   High: 45
Freezing level: 4500’-7000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hover near 4500’ through the day and then spike up to around 7000’ tonight.  Surface temperatures will remain above freezing through at least Tuesday.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am:
Base: 5-10 ESE
Ridge Top: 5-15 SSW

Trend and Timing:
Winds will be gusty and will shift southerly over the next 12-24hrs.



jM

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