MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Mostly dry and a touch warmer today, heavy snow with mixed rain expected tomorrow with the holiday week shaping up to mild and rainy.    

The Science

Current Observations:  3” of snow fell overnight, the temperature is 30^0f , the Rh is 94%, and the barometer is holding steady at 1020mb’s, the wind is 5-10mph and out of the west.  Mr. Radar shows mostly dry weather over the mountains with a few isolated showers out along the coast. 

The patchy clouds and some clearing around the region is an indicator of the high pressure ridge popping up to the south.  Thus, the next 24hrs will be mostly dry.

The next frontal system arrives tomorrow.  This storms anatomy involves a rise in freezing levels to 5000’ sometime after 7 a.m tomorrow.  Freezing levels will then slowly fall to 4000’ through the day/night.  The precipitation arrives around noon tomorrow with the intensity increasing to heavy mixed rain and snow through the afternoon. 

Storm totals from 4am Sunday through 4am Monday range from .75-1.5” of water with a foot or more of snow above 4500’ and 6-8” of wet heavy snow in the base area.

The Long Range:  The snow will begin to diminish early Monday morning.   A warm and very wet airmass lifts up from the south starting on Tuesday.  Heavy rain with freezing levels well above 5000’ is expected through at least Thanksgiving Day.  Although the long-range model differs greatly on this; rain totals from Tuesday through Friday could exceed 10”.      

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am: Today 24hr water: .10 snow: trace Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 1-1.5  snow: 6-12 Trend and Timing: There could be a light snow shower or two this morning, but for the most part, the next 24hrs will be dry.  Tomorrow’s precipitation arrives around noon with heavy mixed rain and snow falling into early Monday morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4am:  Low: 28    High: 36 Freezing level: 4500’ – 5000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ today with daytime temperatures sneaking up into the mid-thirties.  The freezing levels will lift to  5000’ after 7 a.m tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am: Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 5-15 WSW Trend and Timing: Winds will be mostly light and out of the west today.  There will be a short period of east flow tonight before the winds shift SW and strengthen tomorrow.

jM