November 23, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0830 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Windy with rain changing to snow today, snow showers can be expected tomorrow with the weekend starting out dry.     

The Science

Current Observations:  1.69” of rain fell over the last 24hrs, the temperature is 43f.  The Rh=97% and the barometer is at 1009mb and falling, the winds are out of the SW at 10-15m ph.

An approaching cold front will push another band of heavy precipitation into the Cascade Mountains today.  Once the front passes east of the crest, the temperature will fall and the heavy precipitation will begin to diminish. Strong westerly flow will also fill in behind the front for a period of convergence zone activity. If the timing of the convergence zone and the cool air works out well, there could be up to 6” of fresh snow on the ground for tomorrow.   

The Long Range:  Saturday will start out mostly dry with another strong southerly push of moisture moving up through the region late Saturday night.   This system appears to have snow changing to rain and then back to snow component – stay tuned as those details become more apparent. The long-range models have a drying trend beginning on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
   

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water: 1 snow: 4-6
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25  snow: 2-4

Trend and Timing:
Heavy rain today will slowly shift to snow showers tonight.  Light intermittent snow showers are expected through the day tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 32    High: 46
Freezing level: 7500’ – 4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will fall today dropping to 5000’ by +- 2 pm and then 4000’ sometime after 7 pm.  

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base:  5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W gusty 30+

Trend and Timing:
 Winds will strengthen today with strong westerly ridge top winds likely.



jM

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