November 29, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Wednesday

The Snapshot: Light snow showers with sun breaks can be expected today.  More snow is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon and then again on Friday.  Snow will continue into Saturday with a drying trend beginning on Sunday.  

The Science

Current Observations: 
.87” of water produced 11” of snow over the past 24hrs.  The temperature is 300f , the RH is 93% and the barometer is 1021mb and rising.  The winds are blowing 10-15mph and out of the west. The cloud deck is broken with spotty showers showing up out to the west. 

The Forecast:
A weak upper-level ridge is drifting over the region this morning, hence the broken clouds and stabilizing atmosphere. There will be a few remnant snow showers from time to time, but for the most part, the next 24-36hrs will be dry.

The leading edge of the next frontal system swings through the mountains tomorrow.  The GFS model has this system arriving late tomorrow afternoon with freezing levels holding near 4000’.  The ECMMF model has it arriving early tomorrow morning with slightly higher temperatures.  – time will tell.  Cooler NW flow develops behind this system with snow likely on Friday and Saturday.

The Long Range:  The weekend will start out snowy as the final trough of this storm cycle moves through.  High pressure is expected to move in on Sunday for a prolonged dry period setting up for early next week.        

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water: .10 snow: 0-1
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25-.5  snow: 3-5

Trend and Timing:
Mostly dry today with some flurries possible. Snow returns late tomorrow afternoon.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 28    High: 32
Freezing level: +-4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will be fairly consistent (at or near freezing) for the next several days.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W

Trend and Timing:
Winds will diminish this morning and begin to shift SW tonight.



jM

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