MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Monday

The Snapshot:  The whacky weather day is behind us with cooler temperatures and snow on the way.   Moderate to heavy snow with falling temperatures is expected through early Wednesday morning.  The week will end dry and cold.

The Science

Current Observations:  It is currently snowing with temperatures hovering around 31 degrees.  2.13” of water produced 14” of snow on the upper mountains and 3” of snow on the lower mountain.  The RH is 96%  with the barometer holding around 1011mb’s.   The Tye Mill winds are westerly +-5 mph with gust to around 10mph.   The radar has heavy precipitation falling in the mountains.  

The Forecast:  The snow will continue through the morning hours with a brief break this afternoon.  The next frontal system will track in early tomorrow morning with another batch of moisture in tow.  This system is warm a front followed by a cold front (sound familiar?) but the temperature profile should keep Stevens Pass in snow throughout. 

Once the cold front swings through tomorrow,  freezing levels will drop to 2000’ or lower.  The cold air will mix well with the WSW fetch of moisture.  Therefore we can expect moderate to heavy snow into early Wednesday morning.  

The Long Range:  The snow ends on Wednesday as a cold dry air mass settles in over the region.  Long range models have a strong high pressure ridge with cold arctic setting up for the weekend.    

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today 24hr water: 1 snow: 10-12 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 1 snow: 10-12 Trend and Timing: There will be a lull in the snow this afternoon with snow picking back up late tonight.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am:  Low: 24    High: 32 Freezing level: 4000’ – 3000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will hover around 4000’ today and then begin to fall after midnight tonight.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am: Base: 5-10 W shifting E Ridge Top: 5-15 W Trend and Timing: Winds will diminish this afternoon and shift easterly tonight.  Winds shift back to WNW with the passing of the cold front tomorrow.

jM