December 28, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST - Storm Update

No changes to this morning’s forecast.

There is a significant amount of moisture heading our way -  Freezing levels will be on the cusp trough noon tomorrow – with some luck we will not see much rain – but it will be wet heavy snow.  

Storm totals from 4am today through 4am Saturday are:  +-3” of water,  24-30” of snow  - barring the rain factor.    

Enjoy,  jM




Time and Day: 1100 Thursday

The Snapshot: Increasing snow today with temperatures near freezing. There will be a chance of short rain event tonight with heavy snow expected tomorrow.  The precipitation tapers off on Saturday with the remainder of the weekend trending dry.

The Science

Current Observations: It is snowing with 2” of new thus far.  The temperature is 32f, the RH is 100% and the barometer is 1017mb and falling.  The winds are westerly 5-10mph.  The radar has the approaching moisture just making landfall with light snow beginning to fall in the mountains.  

The Forecast: The snow will increase today as a frontal system (Triple Point) tracks east today.  This system will tap into a long fetch of moisture with heavy precipitation expected for the mountains through Saturday morning.  Snow or rain you ask?  Snow, mixed rain then snow…  

A weak warm front will lift up from the SW tonight pushing freezing levels up to around +-5000’.  The snow level will likely be lower than 5000’ with mixed snow and rain below the 4500’ gradually transitioning to rain through the lower elevations.  The timing for this event is currently scheduled to be between 7pm and 7am. 

Strong ridge top winds will also be a factor as these frontal bands approach.  

A cold front saves the day on Friday with freezing levels falling back to +-4000’.   Heavy snow is expected tomorrow and will slowly taper off on Saturday.  

The Long Range:  A high pressure ridge moves in on Sunday for a dry and clear start to the New Year.     

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 a.m:
Today 24hr water: 1  snow: 7-10  (+ on upper mountain)
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 1.5 snow: 12-15

Trend and Timing:
Snow increases today with mixed rain and snow expected between 7pm and 7am.  Heavy snow will fall through the day tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 a.m: 
Low: 28    High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’ – 5000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hold around 4000’ through the day and then spike up to 5000’ tonight.   Freezing levels will begin to fall early tomorrow morning (after 4am)

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 a.m:
Base: 0-5 W/E
Ridge Top: 10-20 W

Trend and Timing:
Pass level winds will flip from east to west with the passing of the fronts.  Ridge top winds remaining westerly and strong.



jM

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