MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0630 Wednesday

The Snapshot: Light snow showers today increasing tonight. Warmer with moderate to heavy snow finishes out the final week of 2017.   

** There may be a freezing rain component to these storms so be aware out on the roads.

The Science

Current Observations: It’s noticeably warmer this morning with a base area temperature of 22f. The RH is 93% and the barometer has dropped to 1018mb.  The winds along the upper ridge are westerly with gusts to +-10mph.  Satellite radar shows NW flow aloft with clouds and snow showers heading into the North-Central Mountains. 

The Forecast:  Weak NW flow will produce some light snow showers today with the first of two distinct frontal systems preparing to enter the region.  Snow will intensify late tonight/early tomorrow morning as the first (occluded) front moves into the mountains.  The second stronger and warm front arrives on Friday with moderate to heavy snow/rain likely. 

Freezing levels are on the rise and are expected to reach 4000’ tomorrow and inch up to +-4500’ on Friday. The big game will be how the warm air advection mixes with the leftover cold air. 

Storm totals from Thursday 4am – Saturday 4am could exceed 3” of water 15-30” + of snow.  

The Long Range:  The precipitation will linger into early Saturday morning with the rest of the weekend trending dry.  The New Year will likely start out dry as a blocking ridge of high pressure builds.    

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 a.m: Today 24hr water: .25-.5  snow: 2-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .75 snow: 5-8 Trend and Timing: Light snow shower begins today and intensifies after midnight tonight.

24hr temperature ending at 4 a.m:  Low:22     High:26 Freezing level: 2000’-3000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing level are expected to reach 3000’ this evening and then 4000’ sometime tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 a.m: Base: 0-10 W shifting E Ridge Top: 5-15 W shifting E Trend and Timing: Pass level winds will flip-flop from west to east over the next few days while the upper-level winds remain Westerly.

jM