MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST - Survey attached

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Time and Day: 0700 Wednesday  

The Snapshot:  Mixed rain and snow today with rising temperatures. Intermittent snow showers tomorrow with snow for the weekend.   If you are into surfing, models are predicting 25-30 foot swells.

The Science

Current Observations: Yesterday’s showers produced 3” of new snow.  There are midlevel clouds on the upper ridge with good visibility at Pass level. The temperatures are in the low 30’s, the winds are light and out of the east. The barometer is at 1017mb’s and continues to slowly click down.  Satellite imagery has a warm front just offshore with a band of moisture moving into the South Sound and headed NE.

The Forecast:  The east flow and dropping barometer are in response to the approaching frontal system.  This is another triple point storm, which as we have experienced in the past, will lead with warm moist air and then be followed by dropping temperatures and diminishing precipitation.  Therefore, we can expect mixed rain and snow below 5000’ today.  Once the cold front passes late tonight, the temperatures will fall and the precipitation will shift to snow showers.  

The Long Range:  The low-pressure system will drift north on Friday which will allow cooler NW flow and more storms to track toward the PNW.  Details are still on the debate table but we can expect the weekend to be snowy.      

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 a.m: Today 24hr water: .5-.75   snow: 2-4 lower mountain, 3-5 upper mountain. Tomorrow’s 24hr water:.25  snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Mixed rain and snow begin this morning with precipitation shifting to showers overnight.

24hr temperature ending at 4 a.m:  Low: 28    High: 36 Freezing level: 5000’ – 4000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will spike up to 5000’ this afternoon and then begin to fall after midnight tonight.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 a.m: Base: 0-5 E shifting WSW Ridge Top: 5-10 SSE Trend and Timing: East flow at the surface with southerly flow aloft is expected to continue until the cold front passes late tonight.  Winds then shift WSW.

jM