January 11, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  1000 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Heavy snow today with a chance of mixed rain late this afternoon.  Windy tonight with heavy precipitation continuing.   

The Science

Current Observations: It is snowing heavily with the temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s.  7” of snow has fallen since midnight with rapid accumulation.  The barometer is at 1009mb’s and dropping.  The winds are light and out of the east.

The Forecast:  The anticipated winter storm is underway.  The apex of the triple point system is still offshore with the leading warm front now moving into the southern boundary of the state.  As the warm front lifts north freezing levels will rise along with the heavy precipitation.  Expect rain to mix with the heavy snow below 4500’ starting around 4 pm today and lasting through the night.   Cooler air associated with the trailing cold front will hopefully hold freezing levels at or just below Pass level starting late tonight and lasting through tomorrow.   

The Long Range:  Moderate precipitation with freezing levels near 4000’ will continue into early Saturday morning.  Things begin to dry out over the weekend.     

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 a.m:
Today 24hr water: 1-2  snow: 12-20
Tomorrow’s 24hr water:.75  snow: 6-8

Trend and Timing:
Heavy snow today with a chance of a rain mixture after 4 pm today.  The precipitation will continue through the night.


24hr temperature ending at 4 a.m: 
Low: 30    High: 34
Freezing level: 3500’- 4500’ – 4000’

Trend and Timing:   
The freezing levels are expected to rise to 4500’ this afternoon (+-2pm).  Freezing levels will then drop to 4000’ and stick around that elevation for the next few days.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 a.m:
Base: 0-5 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 0-10 E shifting W 20+mph

Trend and Timing:
East flow will shift westerly with the passing of the front this afternoon.  Expect strong westerly wind tonight


jM

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