January 14, 2018

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  0715 Sunday

The Snapshot:   Mild and partly cloudy today and Monday with east flow and an inversion in place.

Current Observations:  Light mist in the inversion fog, no snow accumulation and temperatures right around freezing. RH is in the high 90’s and the barometer is hovering around 1026, which is relatively high.

The Science:   High pressure over the PNW is holding a trough and weak warm front at bay in the Pacific. This is directing strong southerly flow and moisture into SE Alaska. With low pressure off shore and high pressure onshore, the pressure gradient is supporting yet another east flow/inversion event. Near record temperatures (for this time of year) are expected in the Puget Sound area, and ski areas west of the crest are showing temperatures in the 50’s this morning! Little change is expected for Monday, with the high pressure ridge moving a bit to the east and a weakened front moving onshore late in the day.

The Long Range: A weak trough moves across the region Monday night/Tuesday. Freezing levels start out around 5-6,000’ with light precip. Transitory high pressure brings dry conditions Tuesday afternoon with cooling temperatures, and a stronger system with lower freezing levels is on tap for Wednesday night.


24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water: 0 (some light mist in base area)  Snow: 0”
Tomorrow’s 24hr water:  .10    Snow: 0”

Trend and Timing:
No precip expected Sunday, Day 2 precip will be late Monday night or Tuesday morning.  

24hr temperature ending at 4am: 
Low:  30   High: 32/42
Free air freezing level: 10,000’

Trend and Timing:   
East flow will maintain a locally lower (Pass elevation) freezing level. Depending on the level of the inversion, upper mountain temperatures could climb into the 40’s.
 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am:
Base: E 5-10
Ridge Top: ENE 10-15

Trend and Timing:
East flow should continue through Monday.  

DV

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0800 Start Fri Jan 23rd, no ABS