January 19, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Friday  

The Snapshot:  Moderate snow showers are on the docket for the weekend and likely beyond.   It seems that our little January thaw is over and a return to our regularly scheduled winter is on.

The Science

Current Observations: 3” of new snow fell overnight.  The temperature profile is 28 in the base and 24 on the upper mountain.  The barometer is holding steady at 1007mb’s. The winds are light and out of the west. This morning’s radar has plenty of showers heading toward the mountains.   

The Forecast:  A cool, unstable, moist airmass rotating around an offshore low-pressure cell will spin bands of light to moderate snow showers into the mountains for the next several days.  There are complex embedded fronts hidden in this pattern which could enhance precipitation at times. Freezing levels will be in favor snow through the weekend.  
  
The Long Range:  The northern jet stream has finally decided to shift more northerly.  This is allowing colder NW air to mix well with multiple storms developing.  Therefore, we can expect this active weather pattern to continue through the weekend and likely well into next week.       

24hr Precipitation ending at 4 a.m:
Today 24hr water: .5  snow: 3-6
Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25 snow: 2-4

Trend and Timing:
Light to moderate snow showers will persist through the weekend. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 a.m: 
Low: 24    High: 30
Freezing level: +-3000’  

Trend and Timing:   
General daytime warming with push surface temperatures near freezing today with freezing levels around 3000’.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 a.m:
Base: 0 -5 WSW
Ridge Top: 5-10 WSW

Trend and Timing:
WSW flow will be the general wind pattern.  Some short shifts to easterly may occur with the approach of some weak frontal bands. 



jM

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0800 Start Sat Jan 24th, no ABS