MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Thursday

The Snapshot: Cool temperatures with snow showers will persist through tomorrow.  Heavy snow with rising freezing levels starts the weekend.   

The Science

Current Observations: 5” of new snow fell overnight with the temperatures falling nicely into the lower 20’s.  The barometer is low at 1002 mb’s, the winds are westerly and light.  Mr. Radar has spotty snow showers in the mountains with a heavy band of precipitation moving north up the coastline.  

The Forecast:  An unstable atmosphere under cool westerly flow will keep light to moderate snow showers falling in the mountains through tomorrow. 

Focus turns to a strong low-pressure system developing off of the California coast.  Models have this storm tracking up the coast over the next 24-36hrs. As with most systems from the south, it will have a warm component.  

There are two distinct warm fronts with this system; the first arrives late Friday night with this starting out as heavy snow.  Strong SW flow will kick another warm front in late Saturday night. This will push freezing levels above 5000’ with heavy rain expected on Sunday. 

The Long Range:  As it pains me to write this, there is a high likelihood of a significant rain event on Sunday and Monday.   L 

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .5  snow: 3-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5-.75   snow: 5-7 Trend and Timing: Snow showers will persist through today and most of tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 18     High: 26 Freezing level: +- 2000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels have fallen to around 2000’ and are expected to stick around that elevation through tomorrow night.

Winds Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 5-10 WSW Trend and Timing: Westerly flow with a slight tilt towards SW will be the wind pattern through tomorrow.