MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600

The Snapshot:  “The snow is chin high 10 squires deep” A.J. Dauel.   

Snow with windy and warmer conditions can be expected today; rising freezing levels and rain tomorrow and Monday.  This amazing storm cycle will come to an end next week as high pressure builds.  

Wind advisory today:  Sustained 40+mph ridge top winds expected.

The Science

Current Observations: 11” of snow fell yesterday with 5” of that falling overnight.  The temperatures profile is 27 base, 22 ridges.  The barometer has dropped to 1009mb’s.  Satellite radar has widespread precipitation throughout the state. 

The Forecast:  A strong low-pressure system will track north along the coastal waters headed for Canada today.  For the Washington Mountains, this will shift the flow to WSW and entrain warm moist air. 

Winds will be the featured topic of the day with strong westerly flow expected this afternoon.  Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ this morning.  A weak cold front swings in tonight which will temporarily drop the freezing levels and diminish the snow.  

Strong, warm SW flow fills in tomorrow morning pushing freezing levels above 5000’.  The moisture will likely start out as snow and then turn to rain by noon or so.    

The Long Range:  The temperatures keep rising into Monday with a soggy start to the week.   A cold front comes to the rescue on Tuesday with high pressure expected to bring dry and clear weather for the second half of the week.     

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water:  .5 snow: 4-6 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:  1-1.25 snow: 0-2 Trend and Timing: Moderate snow this morning with diminishing showers tonight.  Snow changing to rain begins after 4am tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 24    High: 34 Freezing level:  4000’, 3500’, 5000’. Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels hit 4k mid morning then drop after sunset tonight.   Freezing levels rise to 5500’ by noon or so tomorrow.

Winds Base:  10-20 W Ridge Top: 15-25 W gust +40 Trend and Timing: Strong westerly winds kick in around noon today and sustain into the night. Models have 5000’ winds gusting to 60knots around 4pm today.