Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0730 Monday-Wednesday morning

The Snapshot: Mild and warm for the first half of Monday, windy and snowy after 4pm. Continued light to moderate snow at lower freezing levels Tuesday thru Wednesday.

The Science

Current Observations:  38 degrees on the upper mountain and 33 in the base area with very light winds. The moisture stopped overnight and the skies are partly cloudy this morning. Total height of snow has settled about 8 inches since yesterday, with Schmidt Haus reading 89” and Brooks at 116”. The barometer is slowly dropping as the low pressure center moves closer.

The Forecast: As expected the warm frontal boundary that messed up our good skiing mostly dropped its heavy load on the Olympics and North Cascades yesterday. The associated cold front will sag across the state as the parent low moves onshore Monday. As the cold front approaches the precip will initially start as rain at Stevens Pass, but should sharply transition to snow with frontal passage after 4pm. A moderate shot of snow is likely between 4pm and midnight, with light snow showers into Tuesday morning. Westerly upper level flow affects the PNW Tuesday, with light orographic snow showers and some areas of heavier convergence showers. Currently the heaviest convergence showers look to be north of Stevens. A consistent rate of light to moderate snow continues through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning at cool temperatures and freezing levels around 2500’.

The Long Range: Wednesday looks relatively benign with light snow showers at low freezing levels. Another system looks to move into the area Wednesday night and Thursday bringing warming temperatures and moderate to heavy precip. Freezing levels look on the line for this one so stay tuned as details emerge.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Monday’s 24hr water: .75-1.0   snow: 5-7” Tuesday’s 24hr water: .5-.75   snow: 6” Trend and Timing: Precip likely starts as rain Monday around noon, switching to snow after 4pm. Light to moderate snow showers through Wednesday morning.

Temperature: Low: 24    High: 40 Freezing level: 6500-2500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels and temps fall sharply Monday evening.

Winds Base: W 0-5, then W 10-15 Ridge Top: SSW 10-15, then W 25-30 and gusty Trend and Timing: Winds increase and shift to due westerly Monday night and remain moderate and westerly Tuesday.