January 31, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Windy with light snow today and tomorrow.  Warming and rain expected on Friday with a mixed bag of weather for the weekend.

The Science

Current Observations: The convergence zone shifted north last night which is why only received 3” of snow.  There is partial clearing being reported with the temperature profile at 26 base / 21 ridges.  The 5000’ winds were westerly and have been fairly consistent through the night; 5-15 mph.  The barometer is 10016mb’s and slowly trending up.  

The Forecast:   The rising barometer is an indicator of the pressure gradients easing off a bit today, hence the partial clearing.  Unstable cool westerly flow will keep light snow showers falling in the mountains through tomorrow.

A warm front with moisture will slowly lift north over the next 36-48hrs. Freezing levels are expected to reach 4000’ tomorrow afternoon and then bump up to 5500’ early Friday morning.  The precipitation will continue as snow through tomorrow and then change to rain early Friday morning.  


The Long Range:  A large high pressure system, developing off of the California coastal waters, is expected to slowly drift north over the next 5-7 days.  The center of this system is expected to remain offshore and south of Washington State. This will allow storms with rising and falling freezing levels to continue to move through the region.  What all this means is to expect periods of rain and snow with mild temperatures through the weekend and likely beyond.          

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water:.25-.5   snow: 3-5

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water:.25-.5   snow:1-3

Trend and Timing:
Light snow will persist through tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 26    High:30
Freezing level: 2500 -3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will slowly rise over the next 24hrs but remain below Pass level until tomorrow night.

 
Winds
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
The flow will remain westerly with the winds diminishing today.

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