Mid-Day Weather Update
Time: 2:30pm
Changes to morning forecast: No significant changes to this morning's forecast. 4-6” of snow by opening tomorrow with snow
tapering off through the day.
If anything, the
precipitation may arrive later (after 7pm)
than earlier forecasted. Tomorrow snowfall
amounts may be slightly less as well.
The Snapshot: Clear this morning with an
amazing sunrise. High clouds, warm air, and precipitation will move in
later today. Snow arrives this evening with a possible powder day shaping
up for tomorrow. Thursday will be mostly dry with more snow on Friday and
then again on Saturday.
Note: Depending on the timing of this storm, a short
period of freezing rain may be possible this evening on the east slope
roads.
The Science
Current Observations: The temperature profile is
inverted with the base area temperature at 22f and the Tye Mill telemetry site
reading 29f. The barometer is 1022mb and holding steady at the
moment. The 5000’ winds shifted SW yesterday evening and have eroded the east
flow at the surface. Satellite images show the leading edge of the
approaching frontal system just off the BC coast and tracking SW.
The Forecast: The warm air aloft is in
response to the approaching storm tracking in from the NW. This is a
triple front storm which, as we have experienced in the past, will bring a warm
front with rising freezing levels following cold front and dropping
temperatures. This storm is also entraining a long fetch of moisture
strung out to the SW. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will also play a
role with gusty westerly winds through the night.
The day will likely play out like this: Freezing
levels rising to 5000’ by noon or so and then fall below 4000’ early this
evening. (+- 7pm). Models currently
have the moisture arriving after the cooldown so good news there. The
main bulk of moisture (snow) begins after 4pm
with moderate snow falling through noon or so tomorrow. With some luck,
we could have a foot of snow on the ground by days end tomorrow.
The Long Range: Another system arrives early
Friday morning with snow likely through the weekend.
24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .5 snow: 4-6
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .5 snow: 4-6
Trend and Timing:
The precipitation starts after 4pm today and diminishes to showers tomorrow
afternoon. Convergence conditions will play a factor in snow totals.
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Temperature:
Low:24 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’-5000’-3000’.
Trend and Timing:
Windy conditions can be expected.
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Winds
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will dominate the wind pattern
through tomorrow.
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