MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Windy with rain changing to snow today.  Snow showers linger through the night with dropping temperatures a drying trend beginning tomorrow.   Sunshine and cold temperatures are shaping up for Saturday with snow on Sunday.

The Science

Current Observations: It is lightly raining this morning with the temperatures near 40 degrees and beginning to fall.  The barometer is at 1016mb’s and also beginning to fall. The ridge top winds are westerly and gusting in the 10-15mph range.  Radar echo’s are indicating precipitation beginning to form in the Convergence Zone with rain starting to fall at Stevens Pass.  The leading edge of the approaching cold front is just now passing over Vancouver Canada heading SW.   

The Forecast:  The cold front is expected to pass east of Cascade Crest in a few hours or so.  Temperatures have begun to fall and will sharply drop once the front moves into the eastern basin. The rain will also slowly shift to snow and then taper off through the night. 

The anticipated cold dry airmass will begin to take effect tomorrow.  Models are starting to back off on the extreme cold and also the duration of this event.  Temperatures will likely drop into the mid to lower teens early Saturday morning.     

The Long Range:  Sunshine will begin the weekend with a winter storm arriving on Sunday.   For you snow geeks out there, there is a potential melt-freeze cycle beginning on Saturday and lasting through the middle of next week.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .5  snow: 3-6 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .10  snow:1-2 Trend and Timing: Rain will switch to snow by noon or so today and then taper off through the night.

Temperature: Low: 26    High: 38 Freezing level: 4500’ – 2500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels are expected to drop below 4000’ early this afternoon and then fall to or below 2000’ by after 2am tomorrow morning.

Winds Base: 5-15 W Ridge Top: 10-20 W Trend and Timing: Westerly winds will be strong this morning and then begin to diminish and shift NW tonight.