8am No ABS Sunday April 1st

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  0715 Saturday

The Snapshot: Dry and mostly sunny Saturday, sharp cooling with light to moderate snow Sunday.

The Science

Current Observations:  Partly cloudy skies and no new precipitation this morning. Temperatures have cooled to 30 degrees in the base area and 27 on the upper mountain. Winds are light and variable.

The Forecast: A flat upper ridge will bring dry and mild conditions today. Increasing sunbreaks Saturday afternoon should bring a warming trend, with winds remaining light during the daylight hours. Sunday morning a sharp trough sags south from British Columbia, bringing much cooler air. WNW flow increases bringing moderate snow and possible convergence showers for Stevens Pass.

The Long Range: Cool temps remain on Monday, with light continuing snow showers. Those will end Monday afternoon, with Tuesday looking mostly dry and maybe even partly sunny. A warmer system approaches from the SW for Wednesday and Thursday.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Saturday’s   24hr water: 0    Snow: 0 Sunday’s   24hr water: .5     Snow: 4-6” Trend and Timing: Light snow beginning Sunday morning, moderate in possible convergence Sunday afternoon.

Temperature: Low: 27   High: 38 Freezing Level: 5500’ Trend and Timing:    Warming trend Saturday, sharp cooling Sunday morning.

Winds Base: W 0-5 Ridge Top: WSW 5-10 Trend and Timing: Light winds all day Saturday and Saturday night.

8am No ABS Saturday the 31st

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  0715 Friday

The Snapshot: Light rain/snow today, ending Friday afternoon. Dry and partly cloudy Saturday with mild temperatures.

The Science

Current Observations:  Mixed precip overnight, with rain/freezing rain/light snow at various elevations. No snow accumulation. Winds are moderate from the west. Skies are obscured and the barometer has dropped a bit from yesterday, currently at 1016.

The Forecast:  A weak front in NW flow aloft dropped out of British Columbia overnight, the remnants of which are affecting Washington this morning. Lingering showers will end Friday afternoon. The airmass dries out and stabilizes a bit on Saturday for a likely dry day, with sunbreaks.  

The Long Range: A cool trough approaches on Sunday from the NW. Temperatures will come down with freezing levels back around 2000’ for Sunday and Monday with light snow accumulations possible.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Friday’s   24hr water: <.25    Snow: trace Saturday’s   24hr water: 0     Snow: 0 Trend and Timing: Mixed precip Friday, ending Friday afternoon.

Temperature: Low: 29   High: 36 Freezing Level: 4500’ Trend and Timing:    Steady temperatures Friday.

Winds Base: W 10-15 Ridge Top: W 15-25 Trend and Timing:   Moderate winds Friday morning, easing to light WNW Friday night.

8:00 Fri March 30th No ABS

8:00 Thur March 29th no ABS

Wednesday/Thursday Weather Outlook

Current Conditions: Moderate snow fell during most of the day Tuesday, changing over to rain in the base area after 2pm but remaining white on the upper mountain. Winds are still gusty in the 20's. Radar shows showers becoming spotty and they should end altogether in the next few hours. Temperatures are at 33 degrees on the upper mountain and 36 in the base area. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and dry. Freezing levels are around 3,000'. Winds should be light from the W/NW. 

Thursday: A weak system approaches the northern half of the state in NW flow aloft. Light snow showers are possible with freezing levels between 2500-3000'. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds will remain westerly and light to occasionally moderate. 

A full forecast will be issued Friday morning.

8:00 Wed March 28th no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Tuesday

The Snapshot:   It is going to be a sporty day.  A strong winter storm will bring high winds, heavy snow and rising freezing levels to Stevens Pass today.  Things begin to quiet down with snow tapering off through the night.  Tomorrow will be mostly dry with more snow expected on Thursday.

Note:  A strong wind advisory is in effect with +50mph gust possible along the ridge tops through most of the day.   

The Science

Current Observations: .25” of water produced 3” of snow of overnight. The barometer is at 1020mb’s and falling and the winds are westerly and gusting +-15mph. The satellite radar has moderate snow falling in the mountains and the approaching warm front still off shore.  The main bulk of the moisture is still to the west but is slowly tracking east.    

The Forecast:  The approaching triple front weather system will increase the winds, the temperatures and the precipitation today.  Convergence conditions will also play a factor in the precipitation intensity throughout the day.  The models have 5000’ winds at +50mph’s for most of the day.  Freezing levels are expected to rise to +- 4500’ with the passing of the warm front but cool upper levels NW flow will  help keep most of the moisture in the form of snow.  

The moisture will begin to  taper off late tonight as an upper level ridge slides in.  Tomorrow to be mostly dry with sun breaks.    

The Long Range:  Another system arrives on Thursday with more measurable snow expected.  Models begin to diverge in their interpretation beyond Friday, so we will have to wait for some confidence in what the weekend might bring.   

Note: The daily weather forecast will be sporadic over the next few weeks as Dan and I try to snag some mountain time.   Significant weather events will be forecasted.     

    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 1  snow: 8-12 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:.25   snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Heavy snow today diminishing after midnight. Mostly dry tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 26    High: 34 Freezing level: 4500’-3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak near 4500’ today and then begin to fall late tonight.

Winds Base: 10-15 W Ridge Top: 15-25 W Gusts +40 likely. Trend and Timing: Strong westerly winds will persist through the day and begin to taper off tonight.

6am Tuesday the 27th, ABS

Would still take a few more if you haven't already talked to Dan. Get in touch with Dan before 2pm if you want to come in.  Any day could be the last... 6am, 6am, 6am.

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  0655 Monday

The Snapshot: Moderate snow today, turning heavy tonight and continuing Tuesday with warming temperatures and gusty winds.

The Science

Current Observations:  2” of new overnight, with temperatures remaining cool. It is currently 22 on the upper mountain and 27 in the base area. Winds are moderate from the west. It is cloudy and snowing lightly. The barometer edged up slightly overnight to 1016, and should begin dropping any minute.

The Forecast:  Pre-frontal moisture delivered the preliminary shot of lower density snow this morning. The main front is still offshore but will continue its march eastward during the daylight hours. Consistent precip rates (light-moderate) will continue during the day Monday, with intensities ramping up after 8pm. Moderate snow continues Monday night with gusty winds.

WNW upper flow will continue to pump moisture into the region on Tuesday, with heavy snow likely during the day Tuesday at warming temperatures. Snow level looks to remain below our Pass level on Tuesday, but Snoqualmie might be sad. The high pressure ridge in the eastern Pacific builds in amplitude Tuesday afternoon, cutting off moisture and ending the snow event Tuesday evening.

The Long Range: Wednesday looks dry and mild, with partly cloudy skies. The ridge retrogrades (flattens out) allowing NW flow to bring another system into northern Washington on Thursday. Most of the moisture appears to favor the northern half of the state, with light snow and clouds possible at Stevens Pass. Active weather is possible for next weekend.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Monday’s   24hr water: .75-1.0    Snow: 10-12” Tuesday’s   24hr water: .75-1.0     Snow: 8-10” Trend and Timing: Moderate snow during the day Monday, 4-6” likely during operations. Heavier snow Monday night and Tuesday morning, with heavy snow continuing during the day Tuesday. Snow ends Tuesday afternoon.

Temperature: Low: 22   High: 33 Snow level: 3500’ Trend and Timing:    Temperatures will creep up during the day and overnight lows will be higher than in recent days.

Winds Base: W 10-15 Ridge Top: WSW 20-35 Trend and Timing:   Winds will increase during the day Monday, remaining moderate-strong and gusty thru Tuesday morning.

8am Monday the 26th No ABS

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0710 Sunday

The Snapshot: Fair and mostly sunny Sunday, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Moderate snow Monday with gradually warming temperatures.

The Science

Current Observations:  3” of snow fell by midmorning on Saturday, with no additional accumulation overnight. This morning the skies are clear, and winds are generally calm. It has cooled off nicely, with temperatures at 18 degrees across the mountain. The barometer has been rising over the past 24 hours as a transitory sector of high pressure approaches and is currently at 1011 millibars.

The Forecast:  Washington sits between two weather systems this morning, with yesterday’s low pressure drifting east and an approaching front in the Pacific. Most of Sunday will be calm with lots of sunshine. Clouds will increase late Sunday with light snow beginning after midnight. Accumulations look light by Monday morning.

The front arrives in NW flow on Monday, bringing moderate snow during the day. Upper level winds increase Monday night, enhancing orographic showers Monday night and Tuesday. Freezing levels rise Monday night and Tuesday but look to remain below Pass level. We should see decent snow accumulation from Monday morning thru Tuesday afternoon, in the 10-14” range.

The Long Range: A high pressure ridge forms in the Pacific midweek, with light moisture streaming over the top of it. Light rain/snow is possible Wednesday and Thursday with more seasonal freezing levels, e.g. 4-5,000’.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Sunday’s   24hr water: .10    Snow: 1-2” Monday’s   24hr water: .75     Snow: 8+” Trend and Timing: Light snow after midnight on Sunday, moderate snow during the day Monday, increasing Tuesday morning.

Temperature: Low: 18   High: 32 Snow level: 2000’ Trend and Timing:    Cool air remains in place Sunday and Monday with midday warming.

Winds Base: W 0-5 Ridge Top: W 5-10, then SW 15-20 Trend and Timing: Light and variable winds during the day Sunday will increase late Sunday night and Monday morning.

8am No ABS Sunday the 25th

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0710 Saturday

The Snapshot: Light snow and mostly cloudy today, mostly cloudy tomorrow but dry with light snow Sunday night.

The Science

Current Observations:  2” of new snow early this morning, with 5” in the past 24 hours. Temperatures are cool at 21 on the upper mountain and 26 in the base area. Winds have just shifted to westerly and remain light, the barometer is basically flat over the past 24 hours just over 1003 mbs.

The Forecast:  A complex of low pressure systems within a larger trough feature are bringing cool upper level air and light snow showers to most of the PNW this morning. In the image to the left the shortwave low is visible over northern Washington, with a larger low pressure cell off the Oregon coast. WNW flow will bring continued light to moderate snow and seasonally low freezing levels for the next few days. Snow showers should end Saturday night and pick up again Sunday afternoon/evening.

The Long Range: After light snow begins again Sunday night/Monday morning, moderate snow should continue Monday. Amounts look to ramp up on Tuesday with a decent shot of snow possible. There are inconsistencies for the amplitude and axis of a high pressure ridge forming during the middle of next week. These details will make themselves known eventually…

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Saturday’s   24hr water: .25-.5    Snow: 3-5” Sunday’s   24hr water:  .10    Snow: 1-2” Trend and Timing: Light snow Saturday, ending in the afternoon. Mostly dry during the daylight hours Sunday with light snow Sunday night.

Temperature: Low: 21    High: 32 Snow level: 1500-2000’ Trend and Timing:    Free air temps will peak mid-afternoon as usual, with good cooling by Sunday morning.

Winds Base: W 5-10 Ridge Top: W-NW 10-20 Trend and Timing: Moderate winds during the day Saturday, easing overnight.

8am NO ABS Saturday the 24th

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0730 Friday

The Snapshot:  Cloudy today with intermittent snow showers.   Snow showers will slowly diminish through the weekend with clear periods on Sunday.    

The Science

Current Observations: .43” of water produced 5” of snow over the past 24hrs.   The temperature profile is 24^0f  in the base area and 20^0f  reading on the Tye Mill telemetry site.  The barometer has clicked up a few notches to 1006mb’s.  The winds are light and back to blowing from the east.  The satellite radar shows plenty of showers activity spinning around the offshore low pressure system.

The Forecast:  The low pressure system will continue to spin these bands of snow into the mountains over the next few days.  Temperatures will remain cool with light westerly flow over the region. 

The Long Range:  Mixed rain and snow with rising freezing levels are expected on Monday and Tuesday.

     

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .25-.5  snow: 2-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25  snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Moderate passing snow showers will persist through the weekend.

Temperature: Low: 22    High: 30 Freezing level: +-1500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will remain low today with good daytime recovery.

Winds Base: 0-5 E  shifting W Ridge Top: 0-10 E shifting W Trend and Timing: The east flow will weaken today and shift westerly over the next 24hrs.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST - UPDATE

Mid-Day Weather Update

Time: 1230 Thursday

It's SNOWING with the radar lit up with activity.

Changes to morning forecast:  Precipitation values have been upgraded slightly from .25”  to .25-.5”.  New snow calculations are in the 3-5” range today with the snow diminishing to lighter showers tonight.  Temperatures will continue to fall with freezing levels dropping to 1000’ or lower through the night.  There will be some gusty westerly winds associated with the passing of the front but aren’t expected to be very strong or persistent.  East flow will reestablish overnight.  

Current Observations:  It is currently snowing with a base area temperature of 33 degrees and the upper mountain now at 29 degrees.  The winds have just shifted westerly and are gusting 10-15 mph. 

JM

8:00 Fri March 23rd no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Thursday

The Snapshot: Light rain showers switching to snow showers begins today and continue through the weekend.   Dry and warmer weather will develop early next week.   

The Science

Current Observations: .06” of light moisture fell overnight; it is currently partly cloudy and 35 degrees.  The barometer has dropped to 999mb’s and the winds are easterly and blowing 5-10mph.  The radar has the leading edge of an approaching cold front pushing a band of moisture into the Puget Sound region.     

The Forecast:  Temperatures will fall as the cold front moves inland. The models have the moisture moving into the mountains in a few hours with light to moderate snow showers persisting through the weekend. 

The Long Range: The parent low pressure cell, responsible for this mixed bag of weather, will continue its journey south through the weekend. Dry, sunny and warmer weather will set up camp next week as high pressure builds over the region.  

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .25  snow: 2-4 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25-.5  snow: 2-5 Trend and Timing: Intermittent snow showers will continue through the weekend.  Trickle in accumulation will be possible.

Temperature: Low: 20    High: 34 Freezing level: 5000’ – 3000’ Trend and Timing:    Temperatures will fall through the day with freezing levels dropping to or below 3000’ today.   The temperature will continue to fall tomorrow with Freezing levels hitting +-1000’.

Winds Base: 0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W Trend and Timing: The winds will shift westerly with the passing of the cold front today.