MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Tuesday

The Snapshot:   It is going to be a sporty day.  A strong winter storm will bring high winds, heavy snow and rising freezing levels to Stevens Pass today.  Things begin to quiet down with snow tapering off through the night.  Tomorrow will be mostly dry with more snow expected on Thursday.

Note:  A strong wind advisory is in effect with +50mph gust possible along the ridge tops through most of the day.   

The Science

Current Observations: .25” of water produced 3” of snow of overnight. The barometer is at 1020mb’s and falling and the winds are westerly and gusting +-15mph. The satellite radar has moderate snow falling in the mountains and the approaching warm front still off shore.  The main bulk of the moisture is still to the west but is slowly tracking east.    

The Forecast:  The approaching triple front weather system will increase the winds, the temperatures and the precipitation today.  Convergence conditions will also play a factor in the precipitation intensity throughout the day.  The models have 5000’ winds at +50mph’s for most of the day.  Freezing levels are expected to rise to +- 4500’ with the passing of the warm front but cool upper levels NW flow will  help keep most of the moisture in the form of snow.  

The moisture will begin to  taper off late tonight as an upper level ridge slides in.  Tomorrow to be mostly dry with sun breaks.    

The Long Range:  Another system arrives on Thursday with more measurable snow expected.  Models begin to diverge in their interpretation beyond Friday, so we will have to wait for some confidence in what the weekend might bring.   

Note: The daily weather forecast will be sporadic over the next few weeks as Dan and I try to snag some mountain time.   Significant weather events will be forecasted.     

    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 1  snow: 8-12 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:.25   snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Heavy snow today diminishing after midnight. Mostly dry tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 26    High: 34 Freezing level: 4500’-3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak near 4500’ today and then begin to fall late tonight.

Winds Base: 10-15 W Ridge Top: 15-25 W Gusts +40 likely. Trend and Timing: Strong westerly winds will persist through the day and begin to taper off tonight.