March 1, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day: 0630 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Intermittent snow showers with clear periods will be the weather pattern through the weekend.     

The Science

Current Observations:  Light snow is falling this morning with 4” of new snow on the ground.  The temperature profile is 28 base / 24 ridges.  The winds are light and from the east.  The barometer has dropped to 999mb’s.  The satellite radar has spotty snow showers along the Cascade Crest and rain showers out to the west.   

The Forecast:   Light to moderate intermittent snow showers have filled in behind the front that is now heading toward the intermountain west.  As the parent low of this trickle-in activity tracks southeast, it will spin bands of light to moderate snow showers through the mountains.  The sun will also make an appearance from time to time which could push surface temperatures to or above freezing.  

The Long Range:   Less snow showers with more sun breaks will be the trend through the weekend.  This fickle weather pattern will persist for the first full week of March.     

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25  snow: 1-3

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .5  snow: 3-5

Trend and Timing:
Light intermittent snow showers today with a moderate shower or two tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 24    High: 28
Freezing level: +- 3000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will fluctuate between 2500’ and 3500’ over the next 24-36hrs.  Daytime warming and sun breaks could push surface temperature to or above freezing.

 
Winds
Base: 0-5 ESE
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
East flow at the surface with SE flow aloft will be the wind pattern today.


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