March 15, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day:  0700 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Mostly clear weather with good daytime warming will finish out the week.  The weekend will be the same with a chance of an occasional passing shower or two.     

The Science

Current Observations:  It is partly cloudy this morning with a temperature profile of 23 base / 21 ridges. The upper-level winds just switched from westerly to easterly and are light.  The barometer is holding steady at 1007mb’s.  The radar has mostly clear skies over the mountains with a band of moisture just offshore. 

The Forecast:   The band of moisture just offshore is the last of the effect of the low-pressure system tracking south into the California waters.  The barometric pressure will remain low as the upper-level low drifts south.  There is little moisture making it to the mountains, hence the dry forecast for Stevens Pass.  Temperatures will be seasonally normal with a diurnal melt-freeze cycle beginning.

Weather geek speak:  Diurnal cycle; a pattern that occurs daily.

The Long Range:   Long rang models disagree of what will happen after the weekend.  It is likely that this mostly dry weather pattern will persist through the middle of next week.    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .< 10  snow: 0

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: <. 10  snow: trace

Trend and Timing:
Mostly dry today with a flurry or two possible.


Temperature:
Low: 24    High: 36
Freezing level: 3500 -4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Daytime temperatures will recover into the mid to upper 30’s today.

 
Winds
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 E

Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow will develop today.




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0800 start for Sunday 12/28/25, no ABS

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