March 7, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day: 0630 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  There is an amazing sunrise with alpenglow happening right now. 
Sunshine this morning with increasing clouds and warmer temperatures today.  Moderate to heavy snow tomorrow with the weekend trending dry and warm.

The Science

Current Observations: The satellite image has clear skies over the northern portion of the state and high cirrus clouds beginning to move in from the south.  The temperatures profile is 20 base / 18 ridge.  The barometer is at 1017mb’s and beginning to fall.  Winds are light and out of the east.

The Forecast:  The developing east flow and the falling barometer are the indicators of the low-pressure system moving toward the PNW.  The main event starts after sunrise tomorrow with moderate to heavy snow expected tomorrow afternoon/night.  Freezing levels will be on the cusp (+-4000) but our east flow friend will likely keep most of the precipitation white. 

The Long Range:  Snow showers will begin to taper off on Friday with another ridge of high pressure moving in.  The weekend, for now, is trending dry and warm.       

24hr values daily 4 am to 4 am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .10   snow: Trace

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 1  snow: 8-12

Trend and Timing:
Dry today with snow arriving mid-morning tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 22    High: 40
Freezing level: 3000’ – 5000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ today and then drop to 4000’ for tomorrow’s storm. Surface temperatures could peak near or above 400 f today with the aid of the sun.

 
Winds
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue through the night with the winds shifting SW tomorrow afternoon.



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