April 12, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day: 0700 Thursday

The Snapshot: Seasonally cool with moderate to heavy snow showers and gusty ridge top winds today.  A bit warmer with heavy mixed rain and snow can be anticipated tomorrow.  This pattern will likely continue through  the weekend.  

The Science

Current Observations:  .28” of water produce 2” of snow overnight.  The temperature profile is 29 base - 24 ridges.   The westerly winds kicked in around midnight last night and are currently gusting into the 30’s.   The barometer is still in the low pressure range at 1009mb’s.  This morning radar has broken but abundant snow showers moving through the mountains and more activity heading in from the west.    

The Forecast:  There is plentiful moisture on the way driven by unstable WSW flow.   The freezing levels will remain below 4000’ but seasonal daytime warming will likely push surface temperature to 320f.   

As we move toward the weekend, the snow levels, in relation to freezing levels, will be the determining factor on how much snow will accumulate.  This is proving to be hard to nail down, so for now, expect as much as a foot of new snow by Saturday morning. 

The Long Range:  The mixed rain and snow game continues through the weekend.
    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water:.5-.75   snow: 4-6

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 1   snow: 5-10

Trend and Timing:
Moderate to heavy intermittent snow showers today with mixed rain and snow tomorrow.  


Temperature:
Low: 26     High: 32
Freezing level: 3000’ – 4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will remain below 4000’ today with daytime temperature recovery near freezing.
Freezing levels rise overnight to peak near 4500’ tomorrow.
 
Winds
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W

Trend and Timing:
Moderate westerly winds will continue for most of the day and then diminish overnight. 



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