April 15, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time: 0700 Sunday

The Snapshot:  Light high mountain snow and pass level/valley rain showers with the temperature peaking near 40 degrees can be expected today.  Heavy snow is being cued up for tomorrow’s employee ride day.

The Science

Current Observations: Well, last night’s storm seemed to have lost its punch.  This morning’s radar has light snow showers gathering along the Cascade Crest and tracking SW/NE. 

1” of snow was squeezed out of .63” of water over the last 24hrs. The temperature profile is 33 base / 30 ridge, the barometer has dropped to 1010mb’s. The winds are light and out of the west.  

The Forecast:  The dropping barometer is the indicator of the low-pressure system moving into the region.  This will provide a wide variety of weather over the next 24-36 hrs: for today, warm daytime temperatures with developing east/offshore flow and light intermittent precipitation. 

For tomorrow, cool unstable NW flow fills in as the low-pressure system heads for Canada.  Moderate to heavy snow can be expected tomorrow and Tuesday.   

The Long Range:   Wednesday and Thursday will be a drying out period with more rainy and snowy sport on Friday.    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25+  snow: 1-4

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .75-1  snow: 8-10

Trend and Timing:
Light rain showers today shifting to moderate to heavy snow early tomorrow morning. (after 2am)


Temperature:
Low: 28    High:40
Freezing level: 5000 – 3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will peak near 5000’ again today and then fall below 4000’ around midnight or so.

 
Winds
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow this morning will shift easterly today.  Some strong westerly winds may develop through the early morning hours tomorrow.



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