MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0730 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Today will be a bit soggy with temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s.   The rain will diminish overnight with tomorrow drying out a bit. Another strong system arrives late tomorrow night with rain turning to snow by Saturday evening.  With some luck, we will have some new snow to play in on Sunday.

The Science

Current Observations: .71’ of water produced +-5” of snow over the last 24hrs.   The temperature profile is 33 base /34 ridge.   The barometer remains low at    1013mbs and the winds are light. The radar has plenty of moisture heading into the mountains.

The Forecast:  The large low pressure system responsible for the warm SW stream of moisture will continue to drive waves of precipitation into the region today.  With the exception of an isolated mixed snow shower or two, warm SW flow will keep the freezing levels above the entire resort.  A weak ridge of high pressure nestled between systems will bring some relief tomorrow before the next potent system drives in. 

The Long Range:  The next wave of heavy precipitation arrives early Saturday morning with freezing levels remaining too high for our likes.  A strong cold front will save the day late Saturday night switching the rain to snow.  It is a bit far out to get the details right for Sunday morning, so I will leave that for Dan’s weekend shift.          

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .75-1  snow: 0 base, 1-4 upper mountain Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .24  snow: 0 Trend and Timing: Rain below 4500’ with mixed rain and snow above.

Temperature: Low: 33    High: 38 Freezing level: +-5500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak near 5500’ today and remain high through  Saturday morning.

Winds Base: 0-5 ESE Ridge Top: 5-10 SSE Trend and Timing: East flow as the surface with SE flow aloft today.  Winds shift westerly and strengthen tonight.