April 6, 2018

Mountain Weather Forecast


Time and Day:  740 Friday

The Snapshot: Mild and cloudy Friday. Warm, wet, and windy on Saturday with cooling and snow possible by Sunday.

The Science

Current Observations:  Yesterday’s rain event ended around midnight, with total water amounts at about .4”. Skies are cloudy this morning, and temperatures are in the mid 30’s at all stations. Winds are light from the east. The barometer is basically flat for the past 24 hours.

The Forecast: An impressively deep low for April (975 mb as it approaches land) will make its way towards northern Washington today. Most of the state will be dry with cloudy skies today as the low approaches.

Easterly winds will flow through the passes today and Saturday morning, a very warm airmass will overtake the PNW from the south, bringing high freezing levels and plenty of moisture. In southerly flow the highest winds and heaviest precip are typically blocked at Stevens Pass by terrain to our south, but we should still see very warm temperatures, rain, and wind on Saturday.

Saturday night as the low passes cold air will move in from the WNW. This should drop snow levels to near or below pass level, with continued moisture. With some luck we will have moderate amounts of snow accumulated by Sunday morning.
 

The Long Range: A brief ridge of high pressure builds on Sunday evening and Monday, but is quickly displaced by another system. Active weather continues during the middle of next week with storms and freezing levels hovering around pass level.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.
Precipitation:
Friday’s   24hr
water: .25    Snow:  0

Saturday’s   24hr
water: .75     Snow: 3-5”

Trend and Timing:
Precip type should switch to snow after 5pm on Saturday, with moderate snow accumulations possible by Sunday morning.

Temperature:
Low: 33    High: 44
Freezing Level: 7000’

Trend and Timing:   
The freezing level will climb throughout the day Friday and continue to climb Friday night, peaking Saturday morning.
 
Winds
Base: E 5-15
Ridge Top: ESE 15-25

Trend and Timing:
East winds will gradually strengthen during the day Friday and Friday night.

No comments: