October 29, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: 10:30 Monday

The Snapshot: Light mixed rain and snow showers today with daytime temperatures peaking near 40f.  Tomorrow will be mostly dry with heavy precipitation moving in after sunset.  Wednesday will be wet and windy.

Current Observations:
Precipitation: Very light rain falling. There is 5” of new snow on top of the Cowboy Ridge. .68” of rain fell in the base area overnight.   
Pass temperature: 35
Winds: 5-10 W
Barometer: Holding steady at 1016mb’s
Sky: Overcast with patch fog
Radar: Scattered snow and rain showers over the mountain with heavier precipitation out along the coast.

The Forecast:  The next round of heavy precipitation will enter the mountains late tomorrow night. This will start out as a mixture of snow but will change to all rain by early Wednesday morning.    

Long Range: The storms will keep rolling in through the weekend with moderate to heavy rain anticipated. Freezing levels are expected to remain above Pass level through the weekend as well.  

Rain totals by the end of the weekend could exceed 5” of water
  
The Science:  The atmosphere will temporarily stabilize as a weak upper level ridge moves through today. Due to this ridging, most of the moisture will be confined to the west with some partial clearing east of the mountains.

A strong moist warm front moving towards the PNW is expected to make landfall late tomorrow night.  There is a pocket of cool air preceding the front which will temporarily drop freezing levels to +- 4000’.   Freezing levels will rise to 6500’ in the wake of the front.  Strong westerly flow with tight pressure gradients will produce heavy rain and windy conditions on Wednesday.     

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25   snow: 0-1

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .5-.75  snow:1-3

Trend and Timing:
Light rain showers expected through 4pm tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 30    High:40
Freezing level: 4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hover around the 4500’ today and then briefly drop to 4000’ tomorrow.
 
Winds
Base: 0- 5  W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Winds will be light and out of the west through tomorrow.   High ridge top winds are expected to accompany the warm front late Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning.


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