November 25, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Sunday 0800

The Snapshot:  Dry today with increasing clouds.  The rain vs snow game begins early tomorrow morning.  Light rain on Tuesday with colder temperatures and snow showers expected for the rest of the week.

Current Observations:
Precipitation: 0 
Pass temperature: 26
Pass level winds: 5-10 E
Barometer: Holding at 1019mbs  
Sky: Clear
Radar: Rain along the coast with high clouds moving inland.

The Forecast:  Mixed rain and snow below 5000’ begins after midnight tonight.  The precipitation will intensify through the day.  The precipitation (likely rain) shifts to light showers on Tuesday.  

Long Range: Colder temperatures and intermittent snow showers will persist Wednesday through Friday. With some luck we could pick up an additional 4-6” of snow leading into the weeekend.   
  
The Science: The large low pressure system stirring in the Gulf of Alaska will slowly drift east over the next 12-14hrs.   A triple point frontal system is leading the charge.  The leading warm front is timing out to pass over the Cascade crest sometime after midnight tonight.  How the strong SW flow mixes with the cool east flow will determine whether the precipitation is white or clear.

Models have the east flow being overtaken on Tuesday with some upper level ridging breaking up the moisture stream.  The trailing cold front moves through late Tuesday with unstable cooler air filling in. 

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 1  snow: 2-4

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water:.25-.5   snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
Mixed rain and snow arrives after midnight tonight and intensifies through the day.


Temperature:
Low: 30    High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ – 4500’.

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ today and then to 4500’ or even 5k tomorrow.

 
Winds
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
East flow at the surface with SSE flow aloft will be the wind pattern through early Tuesday morning.



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