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Showing posts from December, 2018

8:00 No ABS Tuesday Jan 1

Previous post about 7:30 start was inaccurate. See you at 8.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast Day and Time: Monday 0600
Current Observations: 24hr Precipitation: .15swe, 2”of snow fell since yesterday afternoon Temperature profile: 17f base, 16f ridge Pass level winds: light and out of the east Barometer: has risen to 1023mb’s Sky: partly cloudy with clearing Radar: dry conditions state wide
The Forecast: The sun will make its last appearance of the year today. Cold temperatures are moving in with dry weather expected through Wednesday.
Long Range: Enjoy the next two days because another wet warm system (similar to this past weekend) is taking shape.Snow begins late Wednesday night with rain and wind anticipated on Thursday. The Science: The barometric pressure hitting 1023mbs is indicative of the high pressure ridge moving into the region.Thus the skies are clearing and the atmosphere is drying and stabilizing. Enjoy.
The cold, dry air that has moved in from the interior west won’t stick around for long as warmer SW flow begins to make a push.We…

7:30 No ABS the last day of 2018! (Monday the 31st)

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast Day and Time: Sunday 1100
Current Observations: 24hr Precipitation: 1.48”(swe) fell since 4pm yesterday with 7” of new snow in the base area. Temperature profile: 28b, 23r Pass level winds: 5-10 W Barometer: 1015mbs and rising Sky: OC, with patchy fog Radar:There are some remnant snow showers lingering in the convergence zones with clearing and drying to the west.
The Forecast: Decreasing snow, wind and temperatures today.The year will end and begin under dry and partly cloudy weather.
Long Range: The next round of precipitation will arrive late Wednesday with warming temperatures. The Science:A high pressure ridge will strengthen over the region today.Some cold air from a dry, arctic air mass sinking into the Intermountain West (Montana) will find its way into the eastern basin over the next 24hrs.Freezing levels will drop to or below 1000’ with mostly dry and clear conditions developing over the Cascade Mountains.
The next storm (low pressure system)…

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST - delay

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast Day and Time: Sunday 0500
Note:The formal forecast will be delayed due to avalanche control.
The Gist: Cooling with diminishing snow showers today.Dry with clear periods tomorrow and Tuesday.
Current Observations: 24hr Precipitation: 2.54 swe, 6” snow in base,+-10” on upper ridge. Temperature profile: 29b, Pass level winds:5-15 W gusty Barometer: 1011mb and slowly rising Sky: OC Radar: Snow showers persisting in the convergence zones with dry patches over Puget Sound.

6:15 ABS Sunday the 30th

Mountain Weather Forecast

AC call off 7:30 Sat ABS

6:15 Sat Dec 29th ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast Day and Time: Friday 0730
Current Observations: 24hr Precipitation: 0 Temperature profile: 23b/ 22r Pass level winds: 5-10 W Barometer:Holding around 1022mb’s  Sky: Mostly clear with high clouds to the west Radar: A band of light moisture, out ahead of the main front, is beginning to reach the western slopes.
The Forecast: Increasing snow today changing to rain tonight and back to snow tomorrow afternoon.Snow showers diminish and eventually taper off on Sunday.Surface temperatures could top 360 f after midnight.
High wind advisory: The winds will increase tonight with 30-50kt winds possible after midnight.High winds persisting through at least noon tomorrow.
Long Range: The last few days of the year will be mostly dry with clear periods under high pressure. The Science:An impressive storm with a long fetch of moisture stretching to the SW is approaching. A warm front with SW advection will sag and possible stall over the regions today.Top freezing level…

7:30 Fri Dec 28th no ABS

TOMORROW'S STORM FORECAST

  Some details on tomorrow storm.  It is shaping up to be quite sporty. 
The snow begins after 7am tomorrow and increases through the day.  Storm Water Equivalent (SWE) will be around 1” by 4am Saturday with another  1” by 4am Sunday.  
Snow: 6-10” by midnight, switching to mixed or all rain after midnight and back to snow after 4pm Saturday.  An additional 4-6” by Sunday morning.
Freezing levels will start out at 2000’ tomorrow and slowly rise to 4000’ by midnight and then 5500’ by 4am Saturday morning.  Freezing levels will fall back below 4000’ after 4pm Saturday.  
The winds will be in play as well with 5000’ winds pushing the +40knot range through the morning hours of Saturday. 
Confidence is fair to good.  
Note: The models are beginning to agree on the height of the freezing levels (+-5500”) but disagree on the timing, duration and intensity of the precipitation.  They should come into alignment with tonight’s model run.   Confidence should be better in tomorrow morning’s forecast.