December 28, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Friday 0730

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:  0
Temperature profile: 23b/ 22r
Pass level winds: 5-10 W
Barometer:  Holding around 1022mb’s 
Sky:  Mostly clear with high clouds to the west
Radar:  A band of light moisture, out ahead of the main front, is beginning to reach the western slopes.

The Forecast:  Increasing snow today changing to rain tonight and back to snow tomorrow afternoon.  Snow showers diminish and eventually taper off on Sunday.  Surface temperatures could top 360 f after midnight. 

High wind advisory: The winds will increase tonight with 30-50kt winds possible after midnight.  High winds persisting through at least noon tomorrow.

Long Range: The last few days of the year will be mostly dry with clear periods under high pressure.  
  
The Science:  An impressive storm with a long fetch of moisture stretching to the SW is approaching.  A warm front with SW advection will sag and possible stall over the regions today.  Top freezing levels associated with this system are reading in the +5500’ range.  Strong 4-5000’ westerly flow will fill in behind the front with strong ridge top winds expected.  

A cold front will swing through tomorrow afternoon/evening, dropping freezing levels and leaving snow showers in its wake.  A high pressure ridge builds over the region on Sunday with the New Year starting out dry with clear periods.  

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 1”   snow: 8-12

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water:  1” snow:  4-8

Trend and Timing:
The snow begins in a few hours and intensifies this afternoon.   The rain window is timing out to be between midnight and noon.



Temperature:
Low:  23   High: 36
Freezing level: 2000’ – 5500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will slowly rise today and peak near 5500’ around midnight tonight.  Freezing levels fall back below 4000’ tomorrow afternoon.


 
Winds
Base: 0-5 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W

Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow will briefly develop today and shift westerly and strengthen tonight.

Winds gust could exceed 50mph during the early morning hours.



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