December 21, 2018

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST



Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Friday 0700

Happy Winter Solstice – Shortest Day of the Year.

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:  SWE = .9,  new snow = 7”  
Temperature profile: 25 base /  20 ridge
Pass level winds: 10-20 W, max gust 59mph
Barometer: 1011mb’s and rising
Sky:  OC with broken upper level clouds
Radar:  There are a few left over showers in the PS Convergence Zone with most of last night’s activity moved out.

The Forecast: Decreasing precipitation today with temperatures in the lower 20’s.   Tomorrow will start out dry with snow developing later in the day.  Snow will continue into Sunday with rising freezing levels.

Long Range: Next week will start out with light passing snow showers with another storm taking shape on Wednesday.  Long range models are showing signs of high pressure developing towards the end of the week.  
  
The Science:  The winds and the precipitation will diminish today as a mid-level ridge slides into place. The sun may even peak out from time to time.  Cooler upper air is streaming in which will keep freezing levels in the 1500’ range.

A developing low pressure trough with a triple point frontal system will bring another round of snow to the Cascade Mountains tomorrow night.  Similar story as the previous storms; east flow, warm front pushing freezing levels up, followed by a cold front.  Storm totals by Monday morning could exceed a foot of new snow.  

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water:  <.25 snow: 1-3

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .5-.75  snow: 5-8

Trend and Timing:
Mostly dry today with the next round of snow moving in tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Temperature:
Low: 20     High: 24
Freezing level: +- 1500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hold around +-1500’ today.   Warming begins tomorrow night.

 
Winds
Base: 5-10 W shifting E
Ridge Top: 5-15 W shifting E

Trend and Timing:
Winds diminish this morning and slowly shift easterly overnight.


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