December 11, 2018

Mountain Weather Forecast

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Monday 0800

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: .5 
24 hr Snow: 5"
Pass temperature: 24
Pass level winds:  5-10 E
Barometer:  1013 and falling
Sky: Snowing hard
Radar: Widespread precipitation in the Cascades and surrounding areas. 

The Forecast: Windy, with heavy snow and possibly rain at pass level. Light snow during the day tomorrow with moderate snow tomorrow night. 

Long Range:  Active weather continues with another system expected Friday. We'll keep an eye on freezing levels for this one, as they may be above pass level. Saturday brings a relative break with more storms in store for next week. 
  
The Science:  The leading edge of the warm front is onshore now, with the current snowfall rate around an inch/hour. Warm frontal moisture will continue to fall, with a likely spike in temperatures when the warm sector of air moves over us midday. We currently have east flow thru the pass which is keeping temps in the mid 20's, how long the east flow hangs in there will be the main determining factor in total snowfall amounts and whether we see a brief period of rain. The trailing cold front will cross the region this afternoon, bringing a sharp drop in temperatures with continued snowfall. Post frontal westerly winds will likely cause a convergence zone to setup for possible increased total snow amounts for this event. 

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 2-2.5"   snow: 18+"

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .75  snow: 6-8"

Trend and Timing:
 Heavy snow today and tonight, possibly mixed with rain midday. Light snow tomorrow, increasing overnight.  

Temperature:
Low: 24    High: 33
Freezing level: 4500'

Trend and Timing:   
Mid day warming trend, sharp cooling in the evening and overnight. 
Winds
Base: 5-10 E, 10-20 W
Ridge Top: 30-40 SW-NW

Trend and Timing:
Increasing winds with directions shifting from SW to NW, then due W. Base area winds are currently easterly but should shift to westerly mid-morning.  

No comments: