January 6, 2019

Mountain Weather Forecast


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Sunday 0645

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:   .25 SWE/3-4” snow
Pass temperature:  27 base/24 upper mountain
Pass level winds:   Moderate and gusty, W
Barometer:  Fallen to 994
Sky: Obscured, moderate snow
Radar: Orographic showers in the mountains and west side foothills

The Forecast: Gusty winds and moderate snow today at cooling temperatures. Precipitation tapering to showers this afternoon, winds becoming light, temperatures cooling further with light snow flurries Monday.

Long Range:  The next system of interest arrives Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system forming off the Californian coast will drive a warm front in southerly flow into the PNW. There will be east flow in advance of the front, and freezing levels don’t get “that” high, probably around 4500-5000’. With any luck we can squeak by with some snow out of it. Weather remains active the rest of the week with another system Thursday, at Pass level snow levels. Friday/Saturday may bring a few dry days.
  
The Science: The upper level trough of cold air has moved onshore as advertised, ushering in a burst of westerly winds this morning. Spotty, fast moving orographic showers will bring periods of moderate snow today, with a 3 hour period midday that a decent convergence zone could setup. The strong winds and upward vertical motion associated with the initial passing of this trough will depart this afternoon, leaving cool air and light showers in its wake. Weak high pressure builds Monday morning for a cool day with a few passing flurries.

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .5-.75  snow: 6-8”

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .10-.25  snow: 1-3”

Trend and Timing:
Light to moderate snow Sunday, possibly heavier in convergence showers. Snow tapering to light showers Sunday afternoon and Monday morning.

Temperature:
Low:  22   High: 28
Freezing level: 2000-1000

Trend and Timing:   
Cooling trend today and tonight.
 
Winds
Base: 15-20 W
Ridge Top: 30-40 and gusty W/SW

Trend and Timing:
Moderate to strong and gusty winds this morning should calm down after 10am and remain light to moderate.

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