MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Day and Time:  Thursday 0630

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:  .04swe, 1” of snow

Temperature profile: 13base, 11 ridges

Pass level winds: light NE winds

Barometer: 1012mb’s and rising.

Sky: Clear

Radar:  Dry and clear.  

The Forecast:  Sunshine today with temperatures peaking in the mid 20’s.   Snow arrives tomorrow.

Long Range:  Snow showers linger through Saturday with Sunday and Monday trending dry and remaining cold.

  

The Science: A high pressure ridge nudged its way over the PNW yesterday, thus, stabilizing and clearing the atmosphere over the Cascades.  Cold NE flow aloft has provided these low early morning temperatures. 

The high pressure ridge will flatten and track SE over the next 24hrs.  This will open the door for another frontal system to track in from the NW tomorrow.  This storm has many characteristic as Tuesday/Wednesday’s storm; triple point with cool NW flow and potential nice orographics.  Because this has a NW to SE orientation the convergence zone target may be south of Stevens, but not ruling in out for Stevens Pass just yet.

Forecast confidence: Confidence in tomorrow’s snow total is fair due to the convergence zone question.

Values from 4am today through

 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 0  snow: 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5-.75  snow: 6-10” Trend and Timing: Snow begins after sunrise tomorrow and continues into Saturday.

Temperature: Low: 13  High: 24 Freezing level:  500’ – 1500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will push up with the shift to westerly flow tonight.

Winds Base: 0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 0-10 E shifting E Trend and Timing: This morning’s weak east flow will shift westerly tonight.