MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Day and Time:  Thursday 0630

Current Observations:

24hr Precipitation:  3” snow, .12swe

Temperature profile: 16 base, 14 upper mountain

Pass level winds: light and out of the west

Barometer: 1012mb’s and slowly rising

Sky: mostly clear

Radar: snow showers over the eastern basin with clear skies over the mountains.

The Forecast:  It was nice to see that a few inches of snow made it through last night.  Mostly dry with clearing can be expected today and tomorrow.   The daytime temperatures will also be bump up a few degrees.  

Long Range: The week will wrap up cool and dry with daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s.   This pattern will continue through the weekend.  There will be a possibility of some snow during the middle of next week.

  

The Science: The low pressure centered over the PNW coastal waters will slowly drift south today.   The rising barometer is indicative of the weak mid-level ridge that has formed over the mountains. This feature has shifted the flow from east to northwest and stabilized the atmosphere just a bit.   Hence the clearing.

Surface lows will continue to form over the region but with little to no moisture available.  The ECMWF model swings more snow showers into the region on Wednesday with the GFS keeping things mostly dry.  Regardless, these systems are not huge producers or pattern changing events.  Therefore, we can expect the first full week of March to have cool temperatures with periodic light snow showers.

Forecast confidence:  Good.

Values from 4am today through

 4am tomorrow.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: <.10  snow: trace Tomorrow’s 24hr water: 0  snow: 0 Trend and Timing: Mostly dry with a few light snow showers possible.

Temperature: Low: 15  High: 26 Freezing level: +-1000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels lift off of sea level today with cool temperature continuing in the mountains.

Winds Base: 0-10 W Ridge Top: 5-10 NW Trend and Timing: NW flow will stick around today and then shift back to easterly late tomorrow.