March 11, 2019

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Monday 0700  

A powder day is in the works for tomorrow – get it while you can, spring is lurking.

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:  0
Temperature profile: 20 base, 26 ridge
Pass level winds: light easterlies
Barometer:1017mb’s and falling
Sky: mostly clear
Radar: Dry throughout the state with moisture echo’s beginning to show up north of Vancouver BC.

The Forecast: Snow moves in tonight with falling temperatures.  The snow will slowly diminish through the day tomorrow.

Long Range: The rest of the week will be mostly dry with warm “spring-like” temperatures moving in. 
  
The Science: The temperature inversion that has developed this morning is indicative of the warm air moving up the western slopes.  This is due to warm SW flow out ahead of an approaching cold front.  Freezing levels will briefly visit 4500’ this afternoon and then fall in the wake of the front. 

The moisture associated with this storm will accompany the cooler air aloft with moderate to heavy snow falling tonight.  The snow will slowly taper off tomorrow as the cold front heads into the intermountain west.  

A high pressure ridge will develop over the inland NW for the second half of the week.  Warm air associated with this system may create a nice melt-freeze cycle heading into the weekend.    

Forecast confidence: Good.

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .75+  snow: 8-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 25.-.5  snow:  2-5

Trend and Timing:
Snow arrives after 4pm today and intensifies overnight.  Remnant snow sticks around for most of the day tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 24  High: 36
Freezing level: 4500’ – 3000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will peak +-5000’ this afternoon and then fall to 3500” overnight.

 
Winds
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 WSW

Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift from E to WSW today.  The flow will remain westerly with gusty ridge top winds likely through this event.
 

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0800 Start Fri Jan 23rd, no ABS