March 13, 2019

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST



Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time:  Wednesday 0700

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: .21swe, 4” snow
Temperature profile: 25 base,  20 ridge
Pass level winds: Light westerly
Barometer: 1015mb’s and climbing
Sky: OC
Radar: there is a line of showers in the southern (Snoqualmie) convergence zone with the rest of the state beginning to dry up.   

The Forecast: A few light snow showers will be possible this morning with dry and partly cloudy conditions expected for the rest of the week.  

Long Range: Cool nights and warm days with little to no precipitation will be the weather pattern through the weekend.  
  
The Science:  With the convergence zone still active, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of another inch or two of snow this morning.  Although the radar has most of the active to the south of Stevens Pass. 

The mountains will enjoy the first taste of spring as high pressure builds and strengthens over the inland NW over the next 3-5 days.  The moisture will be confined to the coastal region with partly cloudy and dry weather expected for the mountains.  A diurnal temperature pattern will develop for a potential melt-freeze cycle developing.  A corn cycle perhaps?   Daytime temperatures could peak near 500f over the weekend.   

Forecast confidence:  Good – models are in fairly good agreement for this upcoming weather pattern.

Values from 4am today through
 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .10  snow: 1-2

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 0  snow: 0

Trend and Timing:
A few convergence zone showers will still be possible today with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the week.


Temperature:
Low: 22  High: 34
Freezing level: +-3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will bounce between 3000’ and 4000’ with daytime temperatures pushing into the low to mid 30’s.

 
Winds
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will continue today with surface east flow and southerly flow aloft developing tomorrow.


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0800 Start Sat Jan 24th, no ABS